地震预报与预测
定义
预报声称指定未来地震的确切时间、地点和震级——目前不可能。预测提供地震在时间段内发生可能性的概率估计。
示例
USGS预报湾区在30年内有72%的概率发生M6.7+地震，但无法预测具体时间。
相关术语
相关指南
前震:能预测主震吗?
Foreshocks occur before some major earthquakes, but can they be used for prediction? Learn the science behind foreshocks and their limitations.
1976年唐山地震:中国最严重的灾难
The 1976 M7.5 Tangshan earthquake killed an estimated 242,000 people. The deadliest earthquake of the 20th century.
动物能预测地震吗?科学怎么说
Reports of animals acting strangely before earthquakes go back centuries. Learn what science actually says about animal earthquake prediction.
地震天气:为什么是迷思
There is no such thing as earthquake weather. Learn why this persistent myth has no scientific basis and what actually triggers earthquakes.
我们能用应用预测地震吗?
No app can predict earthquakes. Learn the difference between prediction and early warning, and which apps actually provide useful alerts.
月球位相和地震:有关联吗?
Tidal forces from the moon have a tiny effect on earthquake triggering. Learn what research shows about lunar influence on seismicity.
板块构造论:地震的发动机
How tectonic plates move, collide, and generate earthquakes — the fundamental theory explaining Earth's seismic activity.
我们能预测地震吗?科学vs迷信
Despite decades of research, reliable earthquake prediction remains impossible. Learn why forecasting probabilities is the best we can do.
古登堡-里希特法则:频率-震级关系
For every M7, there are ten M6s and a hundred M5s. Learn the foundational statistical law governing earthquake occurrence.
相关案例研究
1976年唐山地震:20世纪最严重的地震
The deadliest earthquake of the 20th century, which destroyed 93% of an industrial city in seconds and exposed the limitations of earthquake prediction despite China's success at Haicheng one year earlier.
1948年阿什哈巴特地震:数十年被隐瞒的苏联灾难
The most concealed earthquake disaster in history, where the Soviet government classified the true death toll of 110,000 as a state secret for 40 years.
常见问题解答
震中是地表上位于震源（地震破裂开始处）正上方的点。通常以经纬度坐标报告。最强的震动通常发生在震中附近，但当地土壤条件和断层几何形态可能使最大损害区域发生偏移。
地震仪（地震计）是检测和记录地震波引起的地面运动的仪器。现代宽频带地震仪可以检测到比原子宽度还小的运动。全球地震仪网络使科学家能够在几分钟内确定地震的位置和震级。
P波（纵波）是通过岩石传播最快的压缩波，最先到达地震台站。S波（横波）到达较晚但引起更大的地面震动。P波可以通过固体、液体和气体传播；S波只能通过固体传播。两者之间的时间差有助于确定地震的距离。
震源是地球内部地震破裂开始的点。它由经度、纬度和深度来描述。震源与其正上方地表之间的垂直距离即为地震深度，这对地表感受到的震动强度有很大影响。
地震学是研究地震和地震波在地球内部传播的科学学科。它包括地震检测、定位和特征描述、地球内部结构、地震危险性评估和地震工程。地震学家利用全球地震仪网络的数据来研究这些现象。