Рои землетрясений: когда маленькие толчки не прекращаются

What Defines an Earthquake Swarm?

An Earthquake SwarmA sequence of earthquakes occurring in a localized area over days to months with no clearly dominant mainshock. Often associated with volcanic activity or fluid injection. is a sequence of earthquakes occurring in a limited geographic area over a period of days to months, with no single dominant event that clearly qualifies as a MainshockThe largest earthquake in a sequence, which defines the overall magnitude of the event. Preceded by foreshocks (sometimes) and followed by aftershocks (always).. In a typical mainshock-aftershock sequence, one event is dramatically larger than all the others. In a swarm, the largest events are close in magnitude to each other, and the sequence may produce hundreds or thousands of small earthquakes that wax and wane over weeks.

Swarms differ from regular aftershock sequences not only statistically but often mechanically. While aftershocks are driven by Coulomb Stress TransferThe process by which an earthquake changes stress on nearby faults, potentially triggering or delaying future earthquakes. Used to forecast which faults are brought closer to failure. redistribution from a large rupture, swarms are more commonly associated with fluid migration (water or magma moving through the crust), slow fault creep, or volcanic activity. The diffuse, distributed nature of swarm seismicity reflects the fact that no single large fault segment is failing all at once; instead, many small patches are failing in sequence, driven by a common underlying process.

Volcanic Swarms: Magma on the Move

The most dramatic and well-studied swarms accompany volcanic activity. When magma forces its way upward through the crust, it creates new fractures and exploits existing ones, producing swarms of Volcanic EarthquakeAn earthquake associated with volcanic activity, caused by magma movement, gas pressure, or rock fracturing near a volcano. Often occurs in swarms and can signal an impending eruption.s as it goes. These swarms characteristically migrate upward over time — the hypocentres of the earthquakes track the advancing front of magma intrusion.

Volcanic swarms are intensely monitored because they are among the most reliable precursors to volcanic eruptions. Before the 2018 Kīlauea eruption in Hawai'i, thousands of small earthquakes occurred beneath the summit area, indicating magma movement within the volcanic plumbing system. Similar swarms preceded the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland and the 2021 Cumbre Vieja eruption on La Palma. Volcanologists use Seismic NetworkA coordinated group of seismograph stations that continuously monitor earthquake activity. The Global Seismographic Network (GSN) includes 150+ stations providing worldwide coverage. data to track swarm migration in real time, helping forecast eruption location and timing.

Induced Seismicity: Human-Caused Swarms

Induced SeismicityEarthquakes triggered by human activities such as hydraulic fracturing (fracking), wastewater injection, mining, or reservoir impoundment. Most are small (M<4) but some have exceeded M5.5. — earthquakes caused by human activities — overwhelmingly manifests as swarms. The injection of fluids deep into the crust (whether wastewater from oil and gas operations, carbon dioxide for sequestration, or geothermal brine) increases pore fluid pressure along pre-existing faults, reducing the effective normal stress and enabling them to slip at stress levels below their natural threshold. This produces clusters of earthquakes that track the progression of the pressure front through the subsurface.

Oklahoma experienced a dramatic example of induced seismicity between 2009 and 2015, when wastewater injection rates increased enormously following the shale oil boom. Annual earthquake rates (for events above magnitude 3.0) increased from fewer than 50 to more than 900, with several events exceeding magnitude 5.0. Once injection operations were curtailed, seismicity rates began to decline, confirming the causal connection. Similar induced swarms have been documented in Kansas, Texas, Colorado, Ohio, and internationally at enhanced geothermal sites and hydraulic fracturing operations.

Tectonic Swarms: Fluid Migration Along Faults

Not all swarms are volcanic or induced. Purely tectonic swarms occur when natural fluid migration through the crust — from high-pressure aquifers, mineral dehydration reactions in metamorphic rocks, or tectonic pumping — raises pore pressure along active fault zones. These swarms are common in geothermal areas, in zones of active mountain building, and along fault systems with high permeability.

The Salton Sea region in Southern California experiences frequent swarms related to the geothermal system and complex fault interactions at the southern end of the San Andreas system. Central Italy has a long history of swarms in the Apennine mountain range, driven by complex interactions between active normal faults and fluid-rich limestone aquifers. These tectonic swarms can occasionally culminate in a significant earthquake — the 2016 Amatrice earthquake in Italy was preceded by weeks of elevated seismicity — but most dissipate without a major event.

Should You Worry? Risk Assessment During Swarms

Earthquake swarms understandably alarm residents of affected areas, especially when they persist for days or weeks. Use the Seismic Risk Checker to evaluate your location's baseline seismic risk, which provides context for interpreting swarm activity. The Seismic NetworkA coordinated group of seismograph stations that continuously monitor earthquake activity. The Global Seismographic Network (GSN) includes 150+ stations providing worldwide coverage. agencies responsible for monitoring your region will issue statements assessing whether the swarm represents elevated hazard.

For most tectonic swarms in areas without volcanoes or recent large earthquakes, the probability of a damaging MainshockThe largest earthquake in a sequence, which defines the overall magnitude of the event. Preceded by foreshocks (sometimes) and followed by aftershocks (always). following a swarm is low but not zero. Probabilistic models based on the swarm's magnitude distribution, spatial pattern, and temporal evolution can estimate this probability. The honest answer for residents is: continue normal precautions, ensure your Earthquake Emergency KitA pre-assembled collection of supplies for surviving the aftermath of an earthquake, typically including water (1 gallon/person/day for 3 days), food, first aid, flashlight, and radio. is ready, and stay informed through official channels. Swarms that show signs of acceleration, migration toward populated areas, or association with volcanic unrest deserve closer attention and may prompt precautionary measures.