Оценщик риска цунами

Estimate tsunami risk based on earthquake parameters and your coastal proximity.

Assessment

Как землетрясения вызывают цунами

Цунами — это океанские волны, вызванные внезапным масштабным смещением воды, чаще всего в результате подводных землетрясений в зонах субдукции. Когда участок океанической коры поднимается или опускается во время великого землетрясения, он вытесняет огромный объём воды, распространяющийся в виде серии длиннопериодных волн. В глубоком океане волны цунами движутся со скоростью 500–800 км/ч (аналогично реактивному самолёту) при высоте волн всего 30–60 см, что делает их практически незаметными. По мере приближения к мелководному побережью волны замедляются и сжимаются, вызывая резкое увеличение высоты — процесс, называемый обмелением, — потенциально достигая 10–30 метров и более у берега.

Не все землетрясения вызывают цунами. Ключевые факторы: землетрясение должно быть подводным (под океаном), неглубоким (обычно менее 70 км), крупным (как правило, M7.0 и выше для местных цунами, M7.5+ для региональных) и должно сопровождаться значительным вертикальным смещением морского дна. Сдвиговые землетрясения, при которых движение по разлому преимущественно горизонтальное, редко вызывают значительные цунами. Наиболее опасный механизм генерации цунами — надвиговые разломы на мегасдвигах зон субдукции, как при событиях в Индийском океане 2004 года (M9.1), Тохоку 2011 года (M9.1) и Чили 1960 года (M9.5).

Ключевые понятия в науке о цунами

Время предупреждения о цунами зависит от расстояния: ближнее цунами может прибыть через 10–30 минут, тогда как трансокеанское может занять часы — цунами 2011 года из Японии достигло Чили через 22 часа.
Цунамигенные землетрясения — это особый класс медленно разрывающихся событий, которые генерируют непропорционально большие цунами относительно своей магнитуды, что делает их особенно опасными для ближайших побережий.
Высота заплеска — максимальная вертикальная отметка, достигаемая водой на суше, — может значительно превышать высоту волны в открытом море из-за рельефа побережья и резонансных эффектов гавани.
Тихоокеанский центр предупреждения о цунами (PTWC) и региональные центры используют буи DART (глубоководные датчики давления) для обнаружения и подтверждения цунами в режиме реального времени.

Типичное применение

Определение того, может ли зафиксированное землетрясение вызвать цунами на основе его параметров.
Образовательное изучение связи между характеристиками землетрясений и генерацией цунами.
Оценка подверженности побережья цунамиопасности при планировании путешествий или переезда.
Изучение систем предупреждения о цунами и важности немедленной эвакуации при ближних событиях.

How to Use

1
Enter Earthquake Parameters
Input the earthquake magnitude, focal depth, and location. Tsunamis are most efficiently generated by shallow (< 50 km depth) thrust earthquakes with vertical fault displacement; the tool checks these criteria automatically.
2
Specify Your Coastal Location
Enter your coastal city or coordinates. The tool calculates your approximate distance from the source and identifies whether you are in a mapped tsunami inundation zone based on NOAA and national tsunami center data.
3
Read Your Risk Summary
Review the estimated wave arrival time, indicative wave height range, and evacuation tier. Treat all outputs as supplementary to official warnings from PTWC, NTHMP, or JMA, which must always take precedence.

About

Tsunami science sits at the intersection of seismology, physical oceanography, and coastal engineering. The word tsunami derives from the Japanese 津波 (tsu, harbor; nami, wave), reflecting Japan's millennia of devastating experience with these events. Despite their colloquial name 'tidal waves,' tsunamis have no connection to tidal forces; they are long-period gravity waves with wavelengths of 100–500 km in deep water and wave periods of 10–60 minutes, compared to wind-driven ocean waves with periods of seconds.

The physics of tsunami generation requires a mechanism that displaces a large volume of water vertically over a large area. Megathrust earthquakes accomplish this by the sudden elastic rebound of the overriding plate—the 2011 Tohoku earthquake caused the seafloor to rise by 5–8 meters over a 300 × 200 km area instantaneously, displacing an estimated 5 cubic kilometers of water. The resulting wave system propagates radially, with energy concentrated perpendicular to the fault strike. Directivity effects mean that the coast directly opposite the rupture typically receives the highest waves.

The Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoy network, operated primarily by NOAA, provides real-time sea-level measurements from the deep ocean floor. These buoys detect tsunami wave amplitudes of centimeters in the open ocean, enabling confirmation or cancellation of warnings within 15–30 minutes of a potentially tsunamigenic earthquake. Combined with coastal tide gauge networks and numerical propagation models, DART data allows warning centers to issue probabilistic wave height forecasts for coastal communities hours before wave arrival in distant-field scenarios. Local and regional tsunamis remain the most challenging problem in warning science because the lead times are measured in minutes.

FAQ

What earthquakes generate tsunamis?

Tsunamis are most commonly generated by shallow (< 50 km depth) submarine thrust earthquakes that produce significant vertical seafloor displacement, typically exceeding 1 meter over large areas. The key factors are: magnitude ≥ M7.5 (though some M7.0 events with favorable geometry have generated destructive tsunamis), a thrust (reverse) or oblique-thrust focal mechanism with a large vertical displacement component, shallow focal depth in the crust or uppermost mantle, and occurrence beneath ocean floor rather than continental crust. Strike-slip earthquakes—where motion is primarily horizontal, as on transform faults—rarely generate significant tsunamis. The 2018 Sulawesi earthquake was exceptional: a predominantly strike-slip event triggered localized submarine landslides that generated the devastating Palu Bay tsunami.

How fast do tsunamis travel and when do they arrive?

Tsunami propagation speed in open ocean is governed by the shallow-water wave formula: v = √(g × d), where g is gravitational acceleration and d is ocean depth. In the deep Pacific (average depth ~4,000 m), tsunamis travel at approximately 700–800 km/h—comparable to a commercial jet aircraft. As waves enter shallower coastal water, they slow dramatically (to 50–100 km/h near shore) while their amplitude increases through shoaling. This means a tsunami generated 4,000 km away arrives in about 5–6 hours in deep water, but can take 30–60 minutes to inundate a coast after entering shallow shelf waters. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) issues initial bulletins within 3 minutes of detecting a significant seismic event.

How far inland can tsunami waves travel?

Tsunami inundation distance depends on wave height, coastal topography, and land elevation. The 2011 Tohoku tsunami waves reached heights of 40.5 m (at Miyako, Japan) and inundated up to 10 km inland across flat coastal plains, destroying the town of Rikuzentakata. In contrast, mountainous coastlines confine inundation to narrow strips. Maximum inundation run-up is generally defined as the highest elevation reached by wave water, measured as meters above mean sea level. NOAA and national emergency management agencies have mapped tsunami inundation zones for high-risk coastlines using numerical models calibrated against historical events. These maps define evacuation zones (A through E or Zone 1 through 3 depending on jurisdiction) for emergency planning.

Is a tsunami warning always issued after a large earthquake?

Warning centers issue tsunami warnings, advisories, and watches based on rapid seismic analysis within minutes of a significant event. PTWC monitors earthquakes globally and issues initial bulletins for any event M7.0+ in ocean basin settings within 3 minutes. However, the first message is often a 'tsunami information statement' that may not indicate confirmed wave generation—definitive warnings come after sea-level gauges and DART buoys confirm or deny wave propagation. Local tsunamis—generated by earthquakes within 50–100 km of shore—can arrive within 5–20 minutes, before official warnings are disseminated. In these cases, the natural warning is the shaking itself: the international standard guidance is that prolonged strong shaking near the coast (> 20 seconds) is itself a tsunami warning signal, and coastal residents should evacuate immediately without waiting for official messages.

Are there tsunamis caused by non-earthquake sources?

Tsunamis can be generated by submarine landslides, volcanic activity, meteorite impacts, and atmospheric pressure disturbances (meteotsunamis). Submarine landslides are the second most common cause: the 1958 Lituya Bay event in Alaska, triggered by an earthquake-induced rockslide, produced a 524-meter run-up—the tallest wave in recorded history. The 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption generated an unusual meteotsunami-like pressure wave that propagated globally at the speed of sound in the atmosphere (~340 m/s), reaching Peru and Japan within hours. Volcanic island collapses—hypothesized for the Canary Islands—could theoretically generate Atlantic basin tsunamis, though the probability and magnitude of such events are debated in the scientific community.